Transparent performance

ApexPredict public track record

Every settled matchday is disclosed after the evaluation worker finishes: shortlist wins, misses, abstentions, league splits, and every modelled market. No outcome is hidden by a subscription.

Matchday report unavailable

The worker-backed postmortem report could not be loaded. This is an API failure, not an empty or perfect record.

Long-term 1X2 ledger

Original match-result model performance

This section remains separate from the reliability shortlist. It evaluates the original EPL 1X2 probability distribution, scoring quality, and publication-time odds.

Published

Pending

Settled

Wins / losses

8 / 0

Accuracy

100%

Average Brier

0.084

Average log loss

0.397

Average odds

1.448

Calibration gap

32.32 pts

Maximum losing streak

Voided

Unit P/L

3.59

ROI

44.88%

Method and eligibility

Accuracy is wins divided by settled wins plus losses. Pending and void results are excluded. Brier score and log loss evaluate the original probability distribution; lower is better. The calibration gap compares average recorded confidence with observed accuracy. ROI and unit profit/loss are calculated only when every eligible settled record has immutable publication-time decimal odds; later prices are never substituted.

Immutable public ledger

Latest post-kickoff records

Up to 20, newest first

Premier League · superseded

Manchester United 4–4 Aston Villa

INCORRECT

Original call: Abstained · 4%
Published: 4 Nov 2026, 02:12 UTC
Settled: 8 Nov 2026, 18:42 UTC
Model: Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
Brier / log loss: 0.421 / 1.374
Publication odds: 1xBet: away 3.02 · 1xBet: draw 3.94 · 1xBet: home 2.32 · Bet365: away 2.90 · Bet365: draw 3.60 · Bet365: home 2.20 · BetVictor: away 2.90 · BetVictor: draw 3.70 · BetVictor: home 2.15 · Betano: away 3.00 · Betano: draw 3.70 · Betano: home 2.25 · Betfair: away 2.90 · Betfair: draw 3.60 · Betfair: home 2.25 · Dafabet: away 2.95 · Dafabet: draw 3.65 · Dafabet: home 2.29 · Marathonbet: away 2.94 · Marathonbet: draw 3.84 · Marathonbet: home 2.26 · Pinnacle: away 3.04 · Pinnacle: draw 3.79 · Pinnacle: home 2.28 · SBO: away 2.67 · SBO: draw 3.23 · SBO: home 2.24 · William Hill: away 2.88 · William Hill: draw 3.70 · William Hill: home 2.25

Changed: system reforecast — Superseded before kickoff by a materially changed model output. · 4 Nov 2026, 03:37 UTC

Premier League · superseded

Manchester United 4–4 Aston Villa

INCORRECT

Original call: Abstained · 4%
Published: 3 Nov 2026, 11:54 UTC
Settled: 8 Nov 2026, 18:42 UTC
Model: Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
Brier / log loss: 0.421 / 1.374

Goal markets, scored on their own

Over/Under 2.5 and both teams to score

Settled goal picks only, every league combined, each market with its own hit rate and sample. A two-way goal market is easier to hit than a three-way match result, so these figures are never added to the 1X2 record above. Every settled pick counts, losses included; voids and no-pick matches are excluded.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Hit rate: 64%
Settled picks: 847
Landed / missed: 545 / 302

Both teams to score

Hit rate: 70%
Settled picks: 91
Landed / missed: 64 / 27

Stated probability against what happened, over all 91 settled picks:

Stated probability65%

Realised hit rate70%

Kristiansund BK 1–0 ValerengaEliteserien: BTTS Yes at 67%MISSED
Utrecht 2–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie: BTTS Yes at 70%LANDED
Lillestrom 3–2 AalesundEliteserien: BTTS Yes at 64%LANDED
Sandefjord 5–5 MoldeEliteserien: BTTS Yes at 62%LANDED
AZ Alkmaar 4–3 GroningenEredivisie: BTTS Yes at 64%LANDED
Cambuur 2–5 PSV EindhovenEredivisie: BTTS Yes at 72%LANDED