ApexPredict football 1X2 model card
Versioned evidence and limitations for the analytical system behind published calls. Updated 26 August 2026.
Intended use
Pre-match English Premier League 1X2 analysis. The model ranks home, draw and away outcomes and may abstain. It is not a guarantee, wagering service or authority for corners, cards, penalties, totals or both-teams-to-score.
Current authority
A chronological Elo probability baseline with point-in-time fixture history. Market, goal, roster and language-model context is advisory unless it passes the stored evidence and publication policy. PostgreSQL publication records—not an explanation generator—are product truth.
Untouched holdout
On the 380-match 2025/26 Premier League holdout, daily walk-forward Elo selected 181 outcomes correctly (47.63%); the closing market selected 188 (49.47%). These historical samples do not predict future accuracy.
Known limitations
The model structurally does not rank a draw first under its current bounded draw equation, although its draw probability is well calibrated over the larger validation set. Current injury, lineup and timestamp-matched market evidence may be absent. Missing required evidence causes watchlist or abstention, never an invented default.
Publication and change policy
Only a recommended result that passes every evidence check may enter the main feed. Original probabilities, model identity and cutoff are preserved. Withdrawals and supersessions remain visible with time and reason; material post-kickoff edits are rejected.
Evaluation
Public reporting includes sample size, accuracy, Brier score, log loss, calibration gap and losing streak. ROI is shown only for samples with complete immutable publication-time decimal odds. Results are never hidden because they lost.
Method details and reproducible research commands are maintained with the prediction-engine source. A model replacement requires versioned holdout evidence, shadow evaluation and explicit promotion review.