Matches in scope
25
Completed or cancelled fixtures covered by this report.
Transparent performance
ApexPredict public track record
Every settled matchday is disclosed after the evaluation worker finishes: shortlist wins, misses, abstentions, league splits, and every modelled market. No outcome is hidden by a subscription.
Matchday report
What landed, what missed, and what Apex left alone
This report is rebuilt from the evaluation worker's settled postmortems. It measures the exact market shortlisted for each match and separately audits every other modelled angle.
Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Lagos time (WAT)
25 matches were in scope. 15 matches received a shortlist pick: 13 landed and 2 missed, a 86.7% hit rate. 10 matches were abstained from.
Shortlist picks
15
Matches where one market cleared every gate.
Landed
13
The shortlisted condition occurred.
Missed
2
The shortlisted condition did not occur.
Abstained
10
No market was strong enough to shortlist.
Not analyzed
0
Completed fixtures missing a public prediction postmortem.
Shortlist hit rate
86.7%
Landed ÷ landed plus missed; abstentions and voids excluded.
Selected performance
Shortlisted markets
Only the one market Apex actually selected for each match.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team to score | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88.9% |
| Double chance | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 83.3% |
All-option audit
Every modelled market
This recreates reports such as “team to score landed 30 of 37.” These were evaluated options, not necessarily customer shortlist picks.
| Market | Landed | Missed | Sample | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 22 | 3 | 25 | 88% |
| Team to score | 21 | 4 | 25 | 84% |
| Both teams to score | 16 | 9 | 25 | 64% |
| Double chance | 16 | 9 | 25 | 64% |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 12 | 13 | 25 | 48% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 11 | 14 | 25 | 44% |
| Outright match result | 34 | 66 | 100 | 34% |
League view
Matchday results by competition
A league can have a strong day without proving a lasting trend. Sample sizes remain visible.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 80% |
| Championship | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 75% |
| Premier Soccer League | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| Liga de Ascenso | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Meistriliiga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| MSFL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Second League | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Serie A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Serie C - Girone A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Superettan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
Every reviewed match
Match-by-match postmortems
Serie ANo selection / abstained
RB Bragantino
4–2Full time
Cruzeiro
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
RB Bragantino won 4-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 4-2 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
RB Bragantino to score75%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals73%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals73%MISSED
RB Bragantino or draw71%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes53%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals52%MISSED
RB Bragantino to win46%LANDED
RB Bragantino to win46%LANDED
Cruzeiro to win29%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Liga de AscensoShortlist landed
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
2–2Full time
Aserri FC
Shortlisted selection
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC to score80%
Reliability score · raw probability 80%
The match finished level 2-2. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC to score80%LANDED
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or draw78%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals73%MISSED
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC to win53%MISSED
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC to win53%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals51%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes51%LANDED
Match to end in a draw26%LANDED
Aserri FC to win22%MISSED
Serie C - Girone ANo selection / abstained
Juventus U23
0–0Full time
Lumezzane
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 0-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals75%LANDED
Juventus U23 or draw72%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals72%MISSED
Juventus U23 to score71%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals54%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes51%MISSED
Juventus U23 to win46%MISSED
Juventus U23 to win46%MISSED
Lumezzane to win28%MISSED
Match to end in a draw27%LANDED
MeistriliigaShortlist landed
Laagri
2–0Full time
Nõmme United
Shortlisted selection
Laagri to score86%
Reliability score · raw probability 86%
Laagri won 2-0. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Laagri to score86%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals85%LANDED
Laagri or draw72%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals65%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes65%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals56%LANDED
Laagri to win48%LANDED
Laagri to win48%LANDED
Nõmme United to win28%MISSED
Match to end in a draw23%MISSED
Second LeagueNo selection / abstained
Montana
2–3Full time
Ludogorets II
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Ludogorets II won 2-3. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals78%MISSED
Montana or draw71%MISSED
Montana to score70%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals69%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals57%MISSED
Both teams to score — No51%MISSED
Montana to win44%MISSED
Montana to win44%MISSED
Ludogorets II to win29%LANDED
Match to end in a draw27%MISSED
MeistriliigaNo selection / abstained
Vaprus
2–2Full time
Kalju Nomme
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 2-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Kalju Nomme to score80%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals80%LANDED
Kalju Nomme or draw78%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals65%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes60%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals57%LANDED
Kalju Nomme to win55%MISSED
Kalju Nomme to win55%MISSED
Match to end in a draw23%LANDED
Vaprus to win22%MISSED
MSFLShortlist landed
Líšeň II
1–1Full time
Zbrojovka Brno II
Shortlisted selection
Líšeň II to score82%
Reliability score · raw probability 87%
The match finished level 1-1. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Líšeň II to score87%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals81%LANDED
Líšeň II or draw78%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals63%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals59%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes56%LANDED
Líšeň II to win55%MISSED
Líšeň II to win55%MISSED
Match to end in a draw23%LANDED
Zbrojovka Brno II to win22%MISSED
3. LigaShortlist landed
FC Saarbrücken
2–4Full time
MSV Duisburg
Shortlisted selection
FC Saarbrücken to score81%
Reliability score · raw probability 81%
MSV Duisburg won 2-4. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals85%LANDED
FC Saarbrücken to score81%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes66%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals65%LANDED
FC Saarbrücken or draw63%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals57%MISSED
FC Saarbrücken to win38%MISSED
FC Saarbrücken to win38%MISSED
MSV Duisburg to win37%LANDED
Match to end in a draw25%MISSED
3. LigaShortlist missed
Hansa Rostock
0–2Full time
SV Meppen
Shortlisted selection
Hansa Rostock to score86%
Reliability score · raw probability 86%
SV Meppen won 0-2. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection missed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals88%LANDED
Hansa Rostock to score86%MISSED
Hansa Rostock or draw83%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals71%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes70%MISSED
Hansa Rostock to win64%MISSED
Hansa Rostock to win64%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals50%LANDED
Match to end in a draw20%MISSED
SV Meppen to win17%LANDED
3. LigaShortlist landed
Havelse
2–2Full time
Würzburger Kickers
Shortlisted selection
Würzburger Kickers to score85%
Reliability score · raw probability 85%
The match finished level 2-2. The shortlisted team_to_score · AWAY selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals87%LANDED
Würzburger Kickers to score85%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals69%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes69%LANDED
Würzburger Kickers or draw66%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals53%MISSED
Würzburger Kickers to win41%MISSED
Würzburger Kickers to win41%MISSED
Havelse to win34%MISSED
Match to end in a draw25%LANDED
SuperettanNo selection / abstained
IFK Norrkoping
4–0Full time
GIF Sundsvall
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
IFK Norrkoping won 4-0. The underlying 1X2 model outcome landed, but it was not a formal recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
IFK Norrkoping or draw94%LANDED
IFK Norrkoping to score87%LANDED
IFK Norrkoping to win83%LANDED
IFK Norrkoping to win83%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals69%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals54%LANDED
Both teams to score — No52%LANDED
Match to end in a draw11%MISSED
GIF Sundsvall to win6%MISSED
3. LigaShortlist landed
Rot-Weiß Essen
2–0Full time
Fortuna Köln
Shortlisted selection
Rot-Weiß Essen to score81%
Reliability score · raw probability 81%
Rot-Weiß Essen won 2-0. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Rot-Weiß Essen or draw85%LANDED
Rot-Weiß Essen to score81%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals80%LANDED
Rot-Weiß Essen to win66%LANDED
Rot-Weiß Essen to win66%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals65%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes60%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals58%MISSED
Match to end in a draw19%MISSED
Fortuna Köln to win15%MISSED
3. LigaShortlist landed
Stuttgart II
3–2Full time
Hoffenheim II
Shortlisted selection
Hoffenheim II to score82%
Reliability score · raw probability 82%
Stuttgart II won 3-2. The shortlisted team_to_score · AWAY selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals86%LANDED
Hoffenheim II to score82%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes68%LANDED
Hoffenheim II or draw68%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals68%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals54%MISSED
Hoffenheim II to win45%MISSED
Hoffenheim II to win45%MISSED
Stuttgart II to win32%LANDED
Match to end in a draw23%MISSED
Premier Soccer LeagueNo selection / abstained
Durban City
1–2Full time
Amazulu
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Amazulu won 1-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-2 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals87%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals70%MISSED
Durban City or draw67%MISSED
Both teams to score — No62%MISSED
Durban City to score61%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals57%LANDED
Durban City to win38%MISSED
Durban City to win38%MISSED
Amazulu to win33%LANDED
Match to end in a draw30%MISSED
Premier Soccer LeagueShortlist landed
Kaizer Chiefs
1–1Full time
Stellenbosch
Shortlisted selection
Kaizer Chiefs or draw84%
Reliability score · raw probability 84%
The match finished level 1-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 1-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Kaizer Chiefs or draw84%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals84%LANDED
Kaizer Chiefs to score70%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals65%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals62%LANDED
Both teams to score — No59%MISSED
Kaizer Chiefs to win58%MISSED
Kaizer Chiefs to win58%MISSED
Match to end in a draw27%LANDED
Stellenbosch to win16%MISSED
Premier Soccer LeagueShortlist landed
Orlando Pirates
3–0Full time
TS Galaxy
Shortlisted selection
Orlando Pirates or draw96%
Reliability score · raw probability 96%
Orlando Pirates won 3-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 3-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Orlando Pirates or draw96%LANDED
Orlando Pirates to score83%LANDED
Orlando Pirates to win83%LANDED
Orlando Pirates to win83%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals79%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals68%LANDED
Both teams to score — No63%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals58%MISSED
Match to end in a draw13%MISSED
TS Galaxy to win4%MISSED
Premier Soccer LeagueShortlist landed
Richards Bay
1–4Full time
Mamelodi Sundowns
Shortlisted selection
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw91%
Reliability score · raw probability 91%
Mamelodi Sundowns won 1-4. The shortlisted double_chance · X2 selection landed; the 1-4 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw91%LANDED
Mamelodi Sundowns to score82%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Mamelodi Sundowns to win73%LANDED
Mamelodi Sundowns to win73%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals70%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes53%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw18%MISSED
Richards Bay to win9%MISSED
ChampionshipNo selection / abstained
Bristol City
0–1Full time
Blackburn
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Blackburn won 0-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals75%LANDED
Bristol City or draw73%MISSED
Bristol City to score72%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals72%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals54%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes51%MISSED
Bristol City to win46%MISSED
Bristol City to win46%MISSED
Match to end in a draw28%MISSED
Blackburn to win27%LANDED
ChampionshipShortlist landed
Burnley
2–2Full time
Charlton
Shortlisted selection
Burnley or draw82%
Reliability score · raw probability 82%
The match finished level 2-2. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 2-2 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Burnley or draw82%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals74%LANDED
Burnley to score73%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals73%MISSED
Burnley to win59%MISSED
Burnley to win59%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes54%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals51%MISSED
Match to end in a draw24%LANDED
Charlton to win18%MISSED
ChampionshipShortlist landed
Cardiff
5–1Full time
Watford
Shortlisted selection
Cardiff to score82%
Reliability score · raw probability 82%
Cardiff won 5-1. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; the 5-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Cardiff to score82%LANDED
Cardiff or draw80%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals69%MISSED
Cardiff to win59%LANDED
Cardiff to win59%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes55%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw22%MISSED
Watford to win20%MISSED
ChampionshipNo selection / abstained
Millwall
0–1Full time
Swansea
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Swansea won 0-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Millwall to score76%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals74%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals72%MISSED
Millwall or draw67%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes52%MISSED
Millwall to win39%MISSED
Millwall to win39%MISSED
Swansea to win33%LANDED
Match to end in a draw28%MISSED
ChampionshipShortlist missed
Wolves
1–3Full time
Bolton
Shortlisted selection
Wolves or draw88%
Reliability score · raw probability 88%
Bolton won 1-3. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection missed; the 1-3 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Wolves or draw88%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Wolves to score70%LANDED
Wolves to win69%MISSED
Wolves to win69%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals69%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes56%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw18%MISSED
Bolton to win12%LANDED
ChampionshipNo selection / abstained
Wrexham
1–2Full time
West Brom
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
West Brom won 1-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-2 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals76%LANDED
Wrexham to score74%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals71%LANDED
Wrexham or draw69%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals55%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes50%LANDED
Wrexham to win41%MISSED
Wrexham to win41%MISSED
West Brom to win31%LANDED
Match to end in a draw29%MISSED
ChampionshipShortlist landed
Birmingham
4–0Full time
Preston
Shortlisted selection
Birmingham or draw86%
Reliability score · raw probability 86%
Birmingham won 4-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 4-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Birmingham or draw86%LANDED
Birmingham to score78%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals75%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals72%LANDED
Birmingham to win66%LANDED
Birmingham to win66%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals53%MISSED
Both teams to score — No50%LANDED
Match to end in a draw20%MISSED
Preston to win14%MISSED
ChampionshipNo selection / abstained
Stoke City
2–3Full time
Middlesbrough
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Middlesbrough won 2-3. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-3 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Middlesbrough to score78%LANDED
Middlesbrough or draw75%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals73%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes53%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals51%MISSED
Middlesbrough to win49%LANDED
Middlesbrough to win49%LANDED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Stoke City to win25%MISSED
Long-term 1X2 ledger
Original match-result model performance
This section remains separate from the reliability shortlist. It evaluates the original EPL 1X2 probability distribution, scoring quality, and publication-time odds.
Published
2
Pending
1
Settled
1
Wins / losses
1 / 0
Accuracy
100%
Average Brier
0.070
Average log loss
0.359
Average odds
1.393
Calibration gap
30.14 pts
Maximum losing streak
0
Voided
0
Unit P/L
0.39
ROI
39%
Method and eligibility
Accuracy is wins divided by settled wins plus losses. Pending and void results are excluded. Brier score and log loss evaluate the original probability distribution; lower is better. The calibration gap compares average recorded confidence with observed accuracy. ROI and unit profit/loss are calculated only when every eligible settled record has immutable publication-time decimal odds; later prices are never substituted.
Immutable public ledger
Latest post-kickoff records
Premier League · superseded
Sunderland 0–0 Leeds
- Original call
- Abstained · 0%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.381 / 1.244
- Publication odds
- 1xBet: away 2.63 · 1xBet: draw 3.44 · 1xBet: home 2.90 · Bet365: away 2.45 · Bet365: draw 3.40 · Bet365: home 2.80 · BetVictor: away 2.45 · BetVictor: draw 3.25 · BetVictor: home 2.80 · Betano: away 2.50 · Betano: draw 3.25 · Betano: home 2.92 · Betfair: away 2.45 · Betfair: draw 3.10 · Betfair: home 3.00 · Dafabet: away 2.49 · Dafabet: draw 3.30 · Dafabet: home 2.90 · Marathonbet: away 2.56 · Marathonbet: draw 3.35 · Marathonbet: home 2.82 · Pinnacle: away 2.58 · Pinnacle: draw 3.22 · Pinnacle: home 2.99 · SBO: away 2.33 · SBO: draw 3.02 · SBO: home 2.70 · William Hill: away 2.50 · William Hill: draw 3.20 · William Hill: home 2.80
Changed: system reforecast — Superseded before kickoff by a materially changed model output. ·
Premier League · superseded
Sunderland 0–0 Leeds
- Original call
- Abstained · 12%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.377 / 1.228
- Publication odds
Goal markets, scored on their own
Over/Under 2.5 and both teams to score
Settled goal picks only, every league combined, each market with its own hit rate and sample. A two-way goal market is easier to hit than a three-way match result, so these figures are never added to the 1X2 record above. Every settled pick counts, losses included; voids and no-pick matches are excluded.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Hit rate
- 65%
- Settled picks
- 527
- Landed / missed
- 340 / 187
Stated probability against what happened, over the latest 51 settled picks:
Stated probability65%
Realised hit rate100%
- Worthing 3–3 SouthendNational League: Over 2.5 at 67%LANDED
- Tamworth 4–1 ScunthorpeNational League: Over 2.5 at 64%LANDED
- Tamworth 4–1 ScunthorpeNational League: Over 2.5 at 64%LANDED
- Worthing 3–3 SouthendNational League: Over 2.5 at 67%LANDED
- Tamworth 4–1 ScunthorpeNational League: Over 2.5 at 65%LANDED
- Tamworth 4–1 ScunthorpeNational League: Over 2.5 at 64%LANDED
Both teams to score
- Hit rate
- 75%
- Settled picks
- 57
- Landed / missed
- 43 / 14
Stated probability against what happened, over all 57 settled picks:
Stated probability65%
Realised hit rate75%