Matches in scope
43
Completed or cancelled fixtures covered by this report.
Transparent performance
ApexPredict public track record
Every settled matchday is disclosed after the evaluation worker finishes: shortlist wins, misses, abstentions, league splits, and every modelled market. No outcome is hidden by a subscription.
Matchday report
What landed, what missed, and what Apex left alone
This report is rebuilt from the evaluation worker's settled postmortems. It measures the exact market shortlisted for each match and separately audits every other modelled angle.
Monday, 19 October 2026 · Lagos time (WAT)
43 matches were in scope. 22 matches received a shortlist pick: 17 landed and 5 missed, a 77.3% hit rate. 18 matches were abstained from, and 3 had no public postmortem.
Shortlist picks
22
Matches where one market cleared every gate.
Landed
17
The shortlisted condition occurred.
Missed
5
The shortlisted condition did not occur.
Abstained
18
No market was strong enough to shortlist.
Not analyzed
3
Completed fixtures missing a public prediction postmortem.
Shortlist hit rate
77.3%
Landed ÷ landed plus missed; abstentions and voids excluded.
Selected performance
Shortlisted markets
Only the one market Apex actually selected for each match.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 85.7% |
| Team to score | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 62.5% |
All-option audit
Every modelled market
This recreates reports such as “team to score landed 30 of 37.” These were evaluated options, not necessarily customer shortlist picks.
| Market | Landed | Missed | Sample | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team to score | 35 | 5 | 40 | 87.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 34 | 6 | 40 | 85% |
| Double chance | 33 | 7 | 40 | 82.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 30 | 10 | 40 | 75% |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 20 | 20 | 40 | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 19 | 21 | 40 | 47.5% |
| Outright match result | 64 | 96 | 160 | 40% |
League view
Matchday results by competition
A league can have a strong day without proving a lasting trend. Sample sizes remain visible.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C - Girone A | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% |
| 1. Division | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50% |
| Eerste Divisie | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Esiliiga A | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100% |
| Liga MX Femenil | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| Liga Nacional | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Premier League | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| 2. liga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Liga 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Premier League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Premier League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Primera Division | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Süper Lig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Superettan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Allsvenskan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| La Liga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Liga MX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Liga Profesional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Premier Division | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Premier League | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Primeira Liga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Primera A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Segunda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Serie A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — |
Every reviewed match
Match-by-match postmortems
Liga MX FemenilNo selection / abstained
Atlético San Luis W
1–2Full time
Juárez W
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Juárez W won 1-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals80%LANDED
Juárez W or draw78%LANDED
Juárez W to score74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals65%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes59%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals57%LANDED
Juárez W to win53%LANDED
Juárez W to win53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw25%MISSED
Atlético San Luis W to win22%MISSED
Primera ANo selection / abstained
Llaneros
1–0Full time
Santa Fe
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Llaneros won 1-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals77%LANDED
Llaneros to score71%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals70%MISSED
Llaneros or draw65%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals56%LANDED
Both teams to score — No50%LANDED
Llaneros to win35%LANDED
Llaneros to win35%LANDED
Santa Fe to win35%MISSED
Match to end in a draw30%MISSED
Liga ProfesionalNo selection / abstained
Belgrano Cordoba
0–3Full time
River Plate
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
River Plate won 0-3. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-3 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals82%LANDED
River Plate or draw74%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals64%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals63%MISSED
River Plate to score62%LANDED
Both teams to score — No57%LANDED
River Plate to win43%LANDED
River Plate to win43%LANDED
Match to end in a draw31%MISSED
Belgrano Cordoba to win26%MISSED
Liga 1Shortlist landed
Cienciano
1–0Full time
UTC Cajamarca
Shortlisted selection
Cienciano or draw89%
Reliability score · raw probability 94%
Cienciano won 1-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 1-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Cienciano or draw94%LANDED
Cienciano to score88%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals83%MISSED
Cienciano to win82%LANDED
Cienciano to win82%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals62%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals60%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes58%MISSED
Match to end in a draw12%MISSED
UTC Cajamarca to win6%MISSED
Primera DivisionShortlist missed
FAS
2–3Full time
Platense
Shortlisted selection
FAS or draw89%
Reliability score · raw probability 89%
Platense won 2-3. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection missed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
FAS or draw89%MISSED
FAS to score83%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals75%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals72%MISSED
FAS to win69%MISSED
FAS to win69%MISSED
Both teams to score — No50%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals50%MISSED
Match to end in a draw19%MISSED
Platense to win11%LANDED
Liga NacionalShortlist landed
Municipal
1–1Full time
Guastatoya
Shortlisted selection
Municipal or draw90%
Reliability score · raw probability 90%
The match finished level 1-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Municipal or draw90%LANDED
Municipal to score81%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals77%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals70%LANDED
Municipal to win69%MISSED
Municipal to win69%MISSED
Both teams to score — No57%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals56%LANDED
Match to end in a draw21%LANDED
Guastatoya to win10%MISSED
Liga MX FemenilShortlist landed
Tigres UANL W
2–0Full time
Querétaro W
Shortlisted selection
Tigres UANL W or draw99%
Reliability score · raw probability 99%
Tigres UANL W won 2-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Tigres UANL W or draw99%LANDED
Tigres UANL W to win95%LANDED
Tigres UANL W to win95%LANDED
Tigres UANL W to score95%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals91%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals76%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes60%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals44%LANDED
Match to end in a draw4%MISSED
Querétaro W to win1%MISSED
Liga MX FemenilShortlist landed
América W
2–1Full time
Pachuca W
Shortlisted selection
América W to score92%
Reliability score · raw probability 92%
América W won 2-1. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
América W to score92%LANDED
América W or draw89%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals89%LANDED
América W to win74%LANDED
América W to win74%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals72%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes64%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals48%LANDED
Match to end in a draw15%MISSED
Pachuca W to win11%MISSED
Liga MXNot analyzed
Monterrey
2–1Full time
CF Pachuca
Coverage gap
No public prediction postmortem exists for this fixture.
No public prediction postmortem was produced for this completed fixture.
All modelled angles (0)
Review unavailable
Primera ANo selection / abstained
Deportivo Cali
0–0Full time
Junior
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 0-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-0 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Deportivo Cali to score77%MISSED
Deportivo Cali or draw76%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals76%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals71%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals54%LANDED
Both teams to score — No50%LANDED
Deportivo Cali to win50%MISSED
Deportivo Cali to win50%MISSED
Match to end in a draw27%LANDED
Junior to win24%MISSED
Liga NacionalShortlist landed
Marquense
2–1Full time
Suchitepéquez
Shortlisted selection
Marquense or draw88%
Reliability score · raw probability 88%
Marquense won 2-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Marquense or draw88%LANDED
Marquense to score82%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals75%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals72%LANDED
Marquense to win67%LANDED
Marquense to win67%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes51%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals50%LANDED
Match to end in a draw21%MISSED
Suchitepéquez to win12%MISSED
Premier LeagueShortlist landed
FC Kharkiv
2–1Full time
Livyi Bereh
Shortlisted selection
FC Kharkiv or draw86%
Reliability score · raw probability 86%
FC Kharkiv won 2-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
FC Kharkiv or draw86%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals86%LANDED
FC Kharkiv to score69%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals67%MISSED
FC Kharkiv to win65%LANDED
FC Kharkiv to win65%LANDED
Both teams to score — No61%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals60%LANDED
Match to end in a draw21%MISSED
Livyi Bereh to win14%MISSED
Premier LeagueNo selection / abstained
Belshina
2–4Full time
Slavia Mozyr
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Slavia Mozyr won 2-4. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals77%MISSED
Slavia Mozyr or draw71%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals70%LANDED
Slavia Mozyr to score67%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals56%MISSED
Both teams to score — No50%MISSED
Slavia Mozyr to win44%LANDED
Slavia Mozyr to win44%LANDED
Belshina to win29%MISSED
Match to end in a draw27%MISSED
Esiliiga ANot analyzed
Maardu
—–—Full time
Flora II
Coverage gap
No public prediction postmortem exists for this fixture.
No public prediction postmortem was produced for this completed fixture.
All modelled angles (0)
Review unavailable
1. DivisionShortlist missed
Pafos
0–0Full time
Apoel Nicosia
Shortlisted selection
Pafos to score81%
Reliability score · raw probability 81%
The match finished level 0-0. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection missed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Pafos to score81%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals77%MISSED
Pafos or draw76%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals69%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes55%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals53%MISSED
Pafos to win50%MISSED
Pafos to win50%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%LANDED
Apoel Nicosia to win24%MISSED
Esiliiga AShortlist landed
Tallinna Kalev
1–2Full time
FCI Levadia II
Shortlisted selection
Tallinna Kalev to score84%
Reliability score · raw probability 84%
FCI Levadia II won 1-2. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals89%LANDED
Tallinna Kalev to score84%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals73%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes72%LANDED
Tallinna Kalev or draw63%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals47%LANDED
Tallinna Kalev to win41%MISSED
Tallinna Kalev to win41%MISSED
FCI Levadia II to win37%LANDED
Match to end in a draw22%MISSED
2. ligaShortlist landed
Tatran Prešov
1–1Full time
Žilina II
Shortlisted selection
Tatran Prešov or draw86%
Reliability score · raw probability 87%
The match finished level 1-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Tatran Prešov or draw87%LANDED
Tatran Prešov to score76%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals75%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals72%LANDED
Tatran Prešov to win69%MISSED
Tatran Prešov to win69%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes51%LANDED
Match to end in a draw19%LANDED
Žilina II to win13%MISSED
Premier LeagueShortlist landed
Torpedo Zhodino
1–0Full time
Naftan
Shortlisted selection
Torpedo Zhodino or draw86%
Reliability score · raw probability 86%
Torpedo Zhodino won 1-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Torpedo Zhodino or draw86%LANDED
Torpedo Zhodino to score85%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals79%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals66%LANDED
Torpedo Zhodino to win64%LANDED
Torpedo Zhodino to win64%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals57%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes56%MISSED
Match to end in a draw22%MISSED
Naftan to win14%MISSED
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3No selection / abstained
Peña Deportiva
0–1Full time
Ucam Murcia
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Ucam Murcia won 0-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Ucam Murcia or draw75%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals73%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals73%LANDED
Ucam Murcia to score66%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes52%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals52%LANDED
Ucam Murcia to win47%LANDED
Ucam Murcia to win47%LANDED
Match to end in a draw28%MISSED
Peña Deportiva to win25%MISSED
Esiliiga AShortlist landed
FC Tallinn
0–3Full time
Viimsi
Shortlisted selection
Viimsi to score85%
Reliability score · raw probability 85%
Viimsi won 0-3. The shortlisted team_to_score · AWAY selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Viimsi to score85%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals82%LANDED
Viimsi or draw81%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals62%LANDED
Viimsi to win61%LANDED
Viimsi to win61%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals60%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes60%MISSED
Match to end in a draw19%MISSED
FC Tallinn to win19%MISSED
1. DivisionShortlist landed
Omonia Nicosia
2–2Full time
Olympiakos
Shortlisted selection
Omonia Nicosia or draw93%
Reliability score · raw probability 93%
The match finished level 2-2. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Omonia Nicosia or draw93%LANDED
Omonia Nicosia to score86%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals79%LANDED
Omonia Nicosia to win78%MISSED
Omonia Nicosia to win78%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals67%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals55%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw15%LANDED
Olympiakos to win7%MISSED
Serie ANo selection / abstained
Monza
4–0Full time
Cagliari
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Monza won 4-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 4-0 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Monza to score77%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals74%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals73%LANDED
Monza or draw71%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals52%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes52%MISSED
Monza to win41%LANDED
Monza to win41%LANDED
Cagliari to win29%MISSED
Match to end in a draw29%MISSED
Premier LeagueNot analyzed
Rodina Moskva
2–2Full time
FC Orenburg
Coverage gap
No public prediction postmortem exists for this fixture.
No public prediction postmortem was produced for this completed fixture.
All modelled angles (0)
Review unavailable
AllsvenskanNo selection / abstained
Degerfors IF
1–2Full time
Kalmar FF
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Kalmar FF won 1-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-2 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals78%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals69%LANDED
Kalmar FF or draw68%LANDED
Kalmar FF to score67%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals57%MISSED
Both teams to score — No51%MISSED
Kalmar FF to win39%LANDED
Kalmar FF to win39%LANDED
Degerfors IF to win32%MISSED
Match to end in a draw29%MISSED
Premier LeagueShortlist landed
Dinamo Minsk
2–0Full time
Arsenal
Shortlisted selection
Dinamo Minsk or draw94%
Reliability score · raw probability 94%
Dinamo Minsk won 2-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Dinamo Minsk or draw94%LANDED
Dinamo Minsk to score87%LANDED
Dinamo Minsk to win81%LANDED
Dinamo Minsk to win81%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals76%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals70%LANDED
Both teams to score — No54%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals52%MISSED
Match to end in a draw13%MISSED
Arsenal to win6%MISSED
Süper LigShortlist landed
Trabzonspor
2–0Full time
Beşiktaş
Shortlisted selection
Trabzonspor to score83%
Reliability score · raw probability 83%
Trabzonspor won 2-0. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; the 2-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Trabzonspor to score83%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals80%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals65%LANDED
Trabzonspor or draw63%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes58%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals57%MISSED
Trabzonspor to win39%LANDED
Trabzonspor to win39%LANDED
Beşiktaş to win37%MISSED
Match to end in a draw25%MISSED
SuperettanShortlist missed
Varbergs BoIS FC
0–0Full time
Helsingborg
Shortlisted selection
Varbergs BoIS FC to score82%
Reliability score · raw probability 82%
The match finished level 0-0. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection missed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Varbergs BoIS FC to score82%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals79%MISSED
Varbergs BoIS FC or draw77%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals66%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes58%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals56%MISSED
Varbergs BoIS FC to win52%MISSED
Varbergs BoIS FC to win52%MISSED
Match to end in a draw25%LANDED
Helsingborg to win23%MISSED
Eerste DivisieShortlist landed
Jong Ajax
2–1Full time
De Graafschap
Shortlisted selection
De Graafschap to score81%
Reliability score · raw probability 81%
Jong Ajax won 2-1. The shortlisted team_to_score · AWAY selection landed; the 2-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals87%LANDED
De Graafschap to score81%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes68%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals68%LANDED
De Graafschap or draw62%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals53%LANDED
De Graafschap to win40%MISSED
De Graafschap to win40%MISSED
Jong Ajax to win38%LANDED
Match to end in a draw22%MISSED
Eerste DivisieShortlist missed
Jong PSV U21
0–1Full time
Dordrecht
Shortlisted selection
Jong PSV U21 to score87%
Reliability score · raw probability 87%
Dordrecht won 0-1. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection missed; the 0-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Jong PSV U21 to score87%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals85%MISSED
Jong PSV U21 or draw69%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals65%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes64%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals56%LANDED
Jong PSV U21 to win45%MISSED
Jong PSV U21 to win45%MISSED
Dordrecht to win31%LANDED
Match to end in a draw24%MISSED
Eerste DivisieNo selection / abstained
Jong Utrecht
1–2Full time
Roda
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Roda won 1-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-2 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals79%LANDED
Roda or draw77%LANDED
Roda to score76%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals67%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes59%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals56%LANDED
Roda to win53%LANDED
Roda to win53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw23%MISSED
Jong Utrecht to win23%MISSED
SegundaNo selection / abstained
Celta de Vigo II
1–1Full time
Tenerife
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 1-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals73%LANDED
Tenerife to score71%LANDED
Tenerife or draw66%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes53%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals51%LANDED
Tenerife to win36%MISSED
Tenerife to win36%MISSED
Celta de Vigo II to win34%MISSED
Match to end in a draw30%LANDED
Serie C - Girone AShortlist landed
Cittadella
1–0Full time
Arzignano Valchiampo
Shortlisted selection
Cittadella or draw83%
Reliability score · raw probability 83%
Cittadella won 1-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Cittadella or draw83%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals79%LANDED
Cittadella to score74%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals68%MISSED
Cittadella to win59%LANDED
Cittadella to win59%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals58%LANDED
Both teams to score — No53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw24%MISSED
Arzignano Valchiampo to win17%MISSED
Serie C - Girone AShortlist landed
Dolomiti Bellunesi
0–3Full time
Trento
Shortlisted selection
Trento or draw82%
Reliability score · raw probability 82%
Trento won 0-3. The shortlisted double_chance · X2 selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Trento or draw82%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals81%LANDED
Trento to score71%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals66%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals61%MISSED
Trento to win56%LANDED
Trento to win56%LANDED
Both teams to score — No55%LANDED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Dolomiti Bellunesi to win18%MISSED
Serie C - Girone AShortlist missed
Giana Erminio
2–1Full time
Union Brescia
Shortlisted selection
Union Brescia or draw84%
Reliability score · raw probability 84%
Giana Erminio won 2-1. The shortlisted double_chance · X2 selection missed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Union Brescia or draw84%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals83%LANDED
Union Brescia to score72%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals64%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals63%MISSED
Union Brescia to win60%MISSED
Union Brescia to win60%MISSED
Both teams to score — No57%MISSED
Match to end in a draw24%MISSED
Giana Erminio to win16%LANDED
Serie C - Girone ANo selection / abstained
Juventus U23
2–1Full time
Renate
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Juventus U23 won 2-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals74%LANDED
Juventus U23 to score74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals73%LANDED
Juventus U23 or draw69%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes54%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals51%MISSED
Juventus U23 to win42%LANDED
Juventus U23 to win42%LANDED
Renate to win31%MISSED
Match to end in a draw28%MISSED
Serie ANo selection / abstained
Parma
0–3Full time
Torino
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Torino won 0-3. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-3 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals77%LANDED
Torino to score72%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals70%LANDED
Torino or draw70%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals56%MISSED
Both teams to score — No50%LANDED
Torino to win39%LANDED
Torino to win39%LANDED
Match to end in a draw31%MISSED
Parma to win30%MISSED
Premier DivisionNo selection / abstained
Waterford
3–2Full time
Galway United
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Waterford won 3-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 3-2 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Waterford or draw79%LANDED
Waterford to score79%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals69%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes57%LANDED
Waterford to win56%LANDED
Waterford to win56%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals54%LANDED
Match to end in a draw22%MISSED
Galway United to win21%MISSED
Premier DivisionNo selection / abstained
Derry City
1–0Full time
St Patrick's Athl.
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Derry City won 1-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-0 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
St Patrick's Athl. to score76%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals74%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals73%LANDED
St Patrick's Athl. or draw73%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes53%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals51%LANDED
St Patrick's Athl. to win45%MISSED
St Patrick's Athl. to win45%MISSED
Match to end in a draw28%MISSED
Derry City to win27%LANDED
La LigaNo selection / abstained
Getafe
1–1Full time
Rayo Vallecano
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 1-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals79%LANDED
Rayo Vallecano or draw69%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals68%LANDED
Rayo Vallecano to score66%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals59%LANDED
Both teams to score — No53%MISSED
Rayo Vallecano to win36%MISSED
Rayo Vallecano to win36%MISSED
Match to end in a draw32%LANDED
Getafe to win31%MISSED
Premier LeagueShortlist landed
Tottenham
3–1Full time
Coventry
Shortlisted selection
Tottenham or draw84%
Reliability score · raw probability 84%
Tottenham won 3-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 3-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Tottenham or draw84%LANDED
Tottenham to score77%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals76%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals71%MISSED
Tottenham to win63%LANDED
Tottenham to win63%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes55%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals51%LANDED
Match to end in a draw21%MISSED
Coventry to win16%MISSED
Primeira LigaNo selection / abstained
SC Braga
1–2Full time
GIL Vicente
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
GIL Vicente won 1-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-2 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
SC Braga or draw83%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals78%LANDED
SC Braga to score75%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals69%LANDED
SC Braga to win59%MISSED
SC Braga to win59%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals57%MISSED
Both teams to score — No52%MISSED
Match to end in a draw24%MISSED
GIL Vicente to win17%LANDED
Liga ProfesionalNo selection / abstained
Newells Old Boys
2–1Full time
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Newells Old Boys won 2-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals83%LANDED
Newells Old Boys or draw81%LANDED
Newells Old Boys to score73%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals64%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals63%MISSED
Both teams to score — No58%MISSED
Newells Old Boys to win54%LANDED
Newells Old Boys to win54%LANDED
Match to end in a draw28%MISSED
Central Cordoba de Santiago to win19%MISSED
Liga ProfesionalNo selection / abstained
Sarmiento Junin
1–1Full time
Barracas Central
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 1-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals84%LANDED
Sarmiento Junin or draw73%LANDED
Sarmiento Junin to score69%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals65%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals62%LANDED
Both teams to score — No58%MISSED
Sarmiento Junin to win41%MISSED
Sarmiento Junin to win41%MISSED
Match to end in a draw32%LANDED
Barracas Central to win27%MISSED
Long-term 1X2 ledger
Original match-result model performance
This section remains separate from the reliability shortlist. It evaluates the original EPL 1X2 probability distribution, scoring quality, and publication-time odds.
Published
19
Pending
1
Settled
18
Wins / losses
12 / 6
Accuracy
66.67%
Average Brier
0.247
Average log loss
0.853
Average odds
—
Calibration gap
0.68 pts
Maximum losing streak
3
Voided
0
Unit P/L
Unavailable
ROI
Unavailable
Method and eligibility
Accuracy is wins divided by settled wins plus losses. Pending and void results are excluded. Brier score and log loss evaluate the original probability distribution; lower is better. The calibration gap compares average recorded confidence with observed accuracy. ROI and unit profit/loss are calculated only when every eligible settled record has immutable publication-time decimal odds; later prices are never substituted.
Immutable public ledger
Latest post-kickoff records
Premier League · superseded
Tottenham 3–1 Coventry
- Original call
- Tottenham win · 69%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.092 / 0.428
- Publication odds
- 1xBet: away 6.47 · 1xBet: draw 4.72 · 1xBet: home 1.54 · Bet365: away 6.50 · Bet365: draw 4.50 · Bet365: home 1.48 · BetVictor: away 6.00 · BetVictor: draw 4.50 · BetVictor: home 1.45 · Betano: away 6.00 · Betano: draw 4.55 · Betano: home 1.50 · Betfair: away 6.00 · Betfair: draw 4.50 · Betfair: home 1.44 · Dafabet: away 6.00 · Dafabet: draw 4.80 · Dafabet: home 1.50 · Marathonbet: away 6.30 · Marathonbet: draw 4.60 · Marathonbet: home 1.50 · Pinnacle: away 6.43 · Pinnacle: draw 4.76 · Pinnacle: home 1.49 · SBO: away 5.42 · SBO: draw 4.12 · SBO: home 1.43 · William Hill: away 5.80 · William Hill: draw 4.20 · William Hill: home 1.50
Changed: system reforecast — Superseded before kickoff by a materially changed model output. ·
Premier League · superseded
Tottenham 3–1 Coventry
- Original call
- Tottenham win · 69%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.091 / 0.426
- Publication odds
Goal markets, scored on their own
Over/Under 2.5 and both teams to score
Settled goal picks only, every league combined, each market with its own hit rate and sample. A two-way goal market is easier to hit than a three-way match result, so these figures are never added to the 1X2 record above. Every settled pick counts, losses included; voids and no-pick matches are excluded.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Hit rate
- 62%
- Settled picks
- 368
- Landed / missed
- 229 / 139
Stated probability against what happened, over the latest 22 settled picks:
Stated probability64%
Realised hit rate0%
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Al Hussein 1–0 DoqarahLeague: Over 2.5 at 64%MISSED
Both teams to score
- Hit rate
- 74%
- Settled picks
- 39
- Landed / missed
- 29 / 10
Stated probability against what happened, over all 39 settled picks:
Stated probability65%
Realised hit rate74%