Matches in scope
26
Completed or cancelled fixtures covered by this report.
Transparent performance
ApexPredict public track record
Every settled matchday is disclosed after the evaluation worker finishes: shortlist wins, misses, abstentions, league splits, and every modelled market. No outcome is hidden by a subscription.
Matchday report
What landed, what missed, and what Apex left alone
This report is rebuilt from the evaluation worker's settled postmortems. It measures the exact market shortlisted for each match and separately audits every other modelled angle.
Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Lagos time (WAT)
26 matches were in scope. 9 matches received a shortlist pick: 8 landed and 1 missed, a 88.9% hit rate. 17 matches were abstained from.
Shortlist picks
9
Matches where one market cleared every gate.
Landed
8
The shortlisted condition occurred.
Missed
1
The shortlisted condition did not occur.
Abstained
17
No market was strong enough to shortlist.
Not analyzed
0
Completed fixtures missing a public prediction postmortem.
Shortlist hit rate
88.9%
Landed ÷ landed plus missed; abstentions and voids excluded.
Selected performance
Shortlisted markets
Only the one market Apex actually selected for each match.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 85.7% |
| Team to score | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
All-option audit
Every modelled market
This recreates reports such as “team to score landed 30 of 37.” These were evaluated options, not necessarily customer shortlist picks.
| Market | Landed | Missed | Sample | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 22 | 4 | 26 | 84.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 21 | 5 | 26 | 80.8% |
| Team to score | 20 | 6 | 26 | 76.9% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 20 | 6 | 26 | 76.9% |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 16 | 10 | 26 | 61.5% |
| Both teams to score | 11 | 15 | 26 | 42.3% |
| Outright match result | 40 | 64 | 104 | 38.5% |
League view
Matchday results by competition
A league can have a strong day without proving a lasting trend. Sample sizes remain visible.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 100% |
| Liga 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| Liga MX Femenil | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| Liga Nacional | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Primera A | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Serie A | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Superettan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Championship | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Liga de Ascenso | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Liga II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Liga Profesional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Primera División | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
Every reviewed match
Match-by-match postmortems
Primera DivisiónNo selection / abstained
Club Nacional
3–2Full time
Deportivo Maldonado
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Club Nacional won 3-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals78%MISSED
Club Nacional or draw78%LANDED
Club Nacional to score70%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals69%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals57%MISSED
Club Nacional to win52%LANDED
Club Nacional to win52%LANDED
Both teams to score — No52%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Deportivo Maldonado to win22%MISSED
Serie AShortlist landed
Corinthians
1–1Full time
Vitoria
Shortlisted selection
Corinthians or draw86%
Reliability score · raw probability 86%
The match finished level 1-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 1-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Corinthians or draw86%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals79%LANDED
Corinthians to score76%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals68%LANDED
Corinthians to win63%MISSED
Corinthians to win63%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals58%LANDED
Both teams to score — No54%MISSED
Match to end in a draw24%LANDED
Vitoria to win14%MISSED
Liga MX FemenilShortlist landed
Toluca W
0–0Full time
Santos Laguna W
Shortlisted selection
Toluca W or draw92%
Reliability score · raw probability 92%
The match finished level 0-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Toluca W or draw92%LANDED
Toluca W to score90%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals88%MISSED
Toluca W to win79%MISSED
Toluca W to win79%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals71%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes67%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals50%LANDED
Match to end in a draw13%LANDED
Santos Laguna W to win8%MISSED
Liga ProfesionalNo selection / abstained
Deportivo Riestra
1–1Full time
Union Santa Fe
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 1-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals82%LANDED
Deportivo Riestra or draw75%LANDED
Deportivo Riestra to score68%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals65%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals62%LANDED
Both teams to score — No55%MISSED
Deportivo Riestra to win44%MISSED
Deportivo Riestra to win44%MISSED
Match to end in a draw32%LANDED
Union Santa Fe to win25%MISSED
Liga NacionalShortlist landed
Antigua GFC
3–0Full time
Xelajú
Shortlisted selection
Antigua GFC to score84%
Reliability score · raw probability 84%
Antigua GFC won 3-0. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Antigua GFC to score84%LANDED
Antigua GFC or draw80%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals79%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals67%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals55%LANDED
Antigua GFC to win55%LANDED
Antigua GFC to win55%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes55%MISSED
Match to end in a draw25%MISSED
Xelajú to win20%MISSED
Primera AShortlist missed
Deportivo Pasto
0–1Full time
Alianza Valledupar
Shortlisted selection
Deportivo Pasto or draw82%
Reliability score · raw probability 82%
Alianza Valledupar won 0-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection missed; the 0-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Deportivo Pasto or draw82%MISSED
Deportivo Pasto to score79%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals75%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals72%MISSED
Deportivo Pasto to win56%MISSED
Deportivo Pasto to win56%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals54%LANDED
Both teams to score — No51%LANDED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Alianza Valledupar to win18%LANDED
Liga MX FemenilNo selection / abstained
León W
2–0Full time
Atlante W
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
León W won 2-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
León W to score85%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals82%LANDED
León W or draw74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals62%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals60%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes60%MISSED
León W to win48%LANDED
León W to win48%LANDED
Atlante W to win26%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Liga de AscensoNo selection / abstained
AD Cofutpa
1–0Full time
Quepos Cambute
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
AD Cofutpa won 1-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Quepos Cambute or draw79%MISSED
Quepos Cambute to score77%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals75%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals72%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes54%MISSED
Quepos Cambute to win54%MISSED
Quepos Cambute to win54%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals50%LANDED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
AD Cofutpa to win21%LANDED
Liga 1No selection / abstained
Isenmulang Kalteng
1–1Full time
Java United
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 1-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals84%LANDED
Isenmulang Kalteng to score84%LANDED
Isenmulang Kalteng or draw67%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes65%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals64%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals58%LANDED
Isenmulang Kalteng to win40%MISSED
Isenmulang Kalteng to win40%MISSED
Java United to win33%MISSED
Match to end in a draw27%LANDED
Liga 1Shortlist landed
Bhayangkara FC
1–0Full time
PSIM Yogyakarta
Shortlisted selection
Bhayangkara FC or draw82%
Reliability score · raw probability 82%
Bhayangkara FC won 1-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Bhayangkara FC to score83%LANDED
Bhayangkara FC or draw82%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals78%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals68%LANDED
Bhayangkara FC to win58%LANDED
Bhayangkara FC to win58%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes55%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals54%MISSED
Match to end in a draw24%MISSED
PSIM Yogyakarta to win18%MISSED
Liga 1Shortlist landed
Dewa United
2–0Full time
Persijap
Shortlisted selection
Dewa United or draw96%
Reliability score · raw probability 96%
Dewa United won 2-0. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Dewa United or draw96%LANDED
Dewa United to win86%LANDED
Dewa United to win86%LANDED
Dewa United to score80%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals77%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals70%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals55%LANDED
Both teams to score — No54%LANDED
Match to end in a draw10%MISSED
Persijap to win4%MISSED
Liga IINo selection / abstained
ASA Targu Mures
2–4Full time
Chindia Targoviste
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Chindia Targoviste won 2-4. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals79%LANDED
Chindia Targoviste to score75%LANDED
Chindia Targoviste or draw72%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals67%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes59%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals56%LANDED
Chindia Targoviste to win46%LANDED
Chindia Targoviste to win46%LANDED
ASA Targu Mures to win28%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
SuperettanShortlist landed
IFK Norrkoping
2–2Full time
Orebro SK
Shortlisted selection
IFK Norrkoping to score84%
Reliability score · raw probability 84%
The match finished level 2-2. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
IFK Norrkoping to score84%LANDED
IFK Norrkoping or draw82%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals69%MISSED
IFK Norrkoping to win61%MISSED
IFK Norrkoping to win61%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes52%LANDED
Match to end in a draw21%LANDED
Orebro SK to win18%MISSED
League OneNo selection / abstained
AFC Wimbledon
0–3Full time
Mansfield Town
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Mansfield Town won 0-3. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-3 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Mansfield Town to score76%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals73%LANDED
Mansfield Town or draw72%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes53%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals51%MISSED
Mansfield Town to win45%LANDED
Mansfield Town to win45%LANDED
AFC Wimbledon to win28%MISSED
Match to end in a draw27%MISSED
League OneNo selection / abstained
Blackpool
2–0Full time
Milton Keynes Dons
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Blackpool won 2-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-0 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Blackpool to score77%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals75%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals72%LANDED
Blackpool or draw69%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes54%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals50%MISSED
Blackpool to win44%LANDED
Blackpool to win44%LANDED
Milton Keynes Dons to win31%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
League OneNo selection / abstained
Bromley
0–4Full time
Leicester
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Leicester won 0-4. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-4 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Leicester or draw80%LANDED
Leicester to score79%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals75%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals71%MISSED
Leicester to win58%LANDED
Leicester to win58%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes54%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals51%LANDED
Match to end in a draw22%MISSED
Bromley to win20%MISSED
League OneNo selection / abstained
Burton Albion
0–0Full time
Bradford
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 0-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Bradford or draw80%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals79%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals68%MISSED
Bradford to score67%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals58%LANDED
Bradford to win54%MISSED
Bradford to win54%MISSED
Both teams to score — No52%LANDED
Match to end in a draw25%LANDED
Burton Albion to win20%MISSED
League OneNo selection / abstained
Cambridge United
2–2Full time
Wycombe
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 2-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-2 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals75%LANDED
Cambridge United to score74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals72%MISSED
Cambridge United or draw67%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes54%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals50%LANDED
Cambridge United to win38%MISSED
Cambridge United to win38%MISSED
Wycombe to win33%MISSED
Match to end in a draw29%LANDED
League OneNo selection / abstained
Doncaster
0–2Full time
Stockport County
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Stockport County won 0-2. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-2 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Stockport County or draw79%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Stockport County to score75%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals69%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes57%MISSED
Stockport County to win56%LANDED
Stockport County to win56%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals53%MISSED
Match to end in a draw23%MISSED
Doncaster to win21%MISSED
League OneShortlist landed
Huddersfield
4–1Full time
Peterborough
Shortlisted selection
Huddersfield or draw84%
Reliability score · raw probability 84%
Huddersfield won 4-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 4-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Huddersfield or draw84%LANDED
Huddersfield to score83%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals82%LANDED
Huddersfield to win65%LANDED
Huddersfield to win65%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals62%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes61%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals60%LANDED
Match to end in a draw19%MISSED
Peterborough to win16%MISSED
League OneShortlist landed
Luton
2–1Full time
Barnsley
Shortlisted selection
Luton or draw86%
Reliability score · raw probability 86%
Luton won 2-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 2-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Luton or draw86%LANDED
Luton to score84%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals81%LANDED
Luton to win68%LANDED
Luton to win68%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals63%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes59%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals59%LANDED
Match to end in a draw18%MISSED
Barnsley to win14%MISSED
League OneNo selection / abstained
Notts County
2–0Full time
Sheffield Wednesday
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Notts County won 2-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Sheffield Wednesday or draw75%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals74%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals72%LANDED
Sheffield Wednesday to score72%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes52%MISSED
Sheffield Wednesday to win49%MISSED
Sheffield Wednesday to win49%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Notts County to win25%LANDED
League OneNo selection / abstained
Oxford United
2–1Full time
Wigan
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Oxford United won 2-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Oxford United to score79%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals75%LANDED
Oxford United or draw75%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals72%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals54%MISSED
Both teams to score — No51%MISSED
Oxford United to win49%LANDED
Oxford United to win49%LANDED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Wigan to win25%MISSED
League OneNo selection / abstained
Stevenage
3–0Full time
Plymouth
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Stevenage won 3-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 3-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Plymouth to score74%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals73%LANDED
Plymouth or draw64%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes54%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals51%MISSED
Plymouth to win37%MISSED
Plymouth to win37%MISSED
Stevenage to win36%LANDED
Match to end in a draw28%MISSED
ChampionshipNo selection / abstained
Wolves
1–1Full time
Portsmouth
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 1-1. The underlying 1X2 model outcome missed, but it was not a formal recommendation; the 1-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Wolves or draw84%LANDED
Wolves to score75%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals74%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals72%LANDED
Wolves to win62%MISSED
Wolves to win62%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes54%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals50%LANDED
Match to end in a draw22%LANDED
Portsmouth to win16%MISSED
Primera ANo selection / abstained
Deportivo Pereira
2–0Full time
Chico
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Deportivo Pereira won 2-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals78%LANDED
Deportivo Pereira to score75%LANDED
Deportivo Pereira or draw73%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals69%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals57%LANDED
Both teams to score — No53%LANDED
Deportivo Pereira to win44%LANDED
Deportivo Pereira to win44%LANDED
Match to end in a draw30%MISSED
Chico to win27%MISSED
Long-term 1X2 ledger
Original match-result model performance
This section remains separate from the reliability shortlist. It evaluates the original EPL 1X2 probability distribution, scoring quality, and publication-time odds.
Published
19
Pending
1
Settled
18
Wins / losses
12 / 6
Accuracy
66.67%
Average Brier
0.247
Average log loss
0.853
Average odds
—
Calibration gap
0.68 pts
Maximum losing streak
3
Voided
0
Unit P/L
Unavailable
ROI
Unavailable
Method and eligibility
Accuracy is wins divided by settled wins plus losses. Pending and void results are excluded. Brier score and log loss evaluate the original probability distribution; lower is better. The calibration gap compares average recorded confidence with observed accuracy. ROI and unit profit/loss are calculated only when every eligible settled record has immutable publication-time decimal odds; later prices are never substituted.
Immutable public ledger
Latest post-kickoff records
Premier League · superseded
Tottenham 3–1 Coventry
- Original call
- Tottenham win · 69%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.092 / 0.428
- Publication odds
- 1xBet: away 6.47 · 1xBet: draw 4.72 · 1xBet: home 1.54 · Bet365: away 6.50 · Bet365: draw 4.50 · Bet365: home 1.48 · BetVictor: away 6.00 · BetVictor: draw 4.50 · BetVictor: home 1.45 · Betano: away 6.00 · Betano: draw 4.55 · Betano: home 1.50 · Betfair: away 6.00 · Betfair: draw 4.50 · Betfair: home 1.44 · Dafabet: away 6.00 · Dafabet: draw 4.80 · Dafabet: home 1.50 · Marathonbet: away 6.30 · Marathonbet: draw 4.60 · Marathonbet: home 1.50 · Pinnacle: away 6.43 · Pinnacle: draw 4.76 · Pinnacle: home 1.49 · SBO: away 5.42 · SBO: draw 4.12 · SBO: home 1.43 · William Hill: away 5.80 · William Hill: draw 4.20 · William Hill: home 1.50
Changed: system reforecast — Superseded before kickoff by a materially changed model output. ·
Premier League · superseded
Tottenham 3–1 Coventry
- Original call
- Tottenham win · 69%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.091 / 0.426
- Publication odds
Goal markets, scored on their own
Over/Under 2.5 and both teams to score
Settled goal picks only, every league combined, each market with its own hit rate and sample. A two-way goal market is easier to hit than a three-way match result, so these figures are never added to the 1X2 record above. Every settled pick counts, losses included; voids and no-pick matches are excluded.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Hit rate
- 62%
- Settled picks
- 368
- Landed / missed
- 229 / 139
Stated probability against what happened, over the latest 22 settled picks:
Stated probability64%
Realised hit rate0%
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Al Hussein 1–0 DoqarahLeague: Over 2.5 at 64%MISSED
Both teams to score
- Hit rate
- 74%
- Settled picks
- 39
- Landed / missed
- 29 / 10
Stated probability against what happened, over all 39 settled picks:
Stated probability65%
Realised hit rate74%