Matches in scope
15
Completed or cancelled fixtures covered by this report.
Transparent performance
ApexPredict public track record
Every settled matchday is disclosed after the evaluation worker finishes: shortlist wins, misses, abstentions, league splits, and every modelled market. No outcome is hidden by a subscription.
Matchday report
What landed, what missed, and what Apex left alone
This report is rebuilt from the evaluation worker's settled postmortems. It measures the exact market shortlisted for each match and separately audits every other modelled angle.
Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Lagos time (WAT)
15 matches were in scope. 4 matches received a shortlist pick: 4 landed and 0 missed, a 100% hit rate. 10 matches were abstained from, and 1 had no public postmortem.
Shortlist picks
4
Matches where one market cleared every gate.
Landed
4
The shortlisted condition occurred.
Missed
0
The shortlisted condition did not occur.
Abstained
10
No market was strong enough to shortlist.
Not analyzed
1
Completed fixtures missing a public prediction postmortem.
Shortlist hit rate
100%
Landed ÷ landed plus missed; abstentions and voids excluded.
Selected performance
Shortlisted markets
Only the one market Apex actually selected for each match.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team to score | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Double chance | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
All-option audit
Every modelled market
This recreates reports such as “team to score landed 30 of 37.” These were evaluated options, not necessarily customer shortlist picks.
| Market | Landed | Missed | Sample | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 12 | 2 | 14 | 85.7% |
| Team to score | 10 | 4 | 14 | 71.4% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 10 | 4 | 14 | 71.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 9 | 5 | 14 | 64.3% |
| Both teams to score | 8 | 6 | 14 | 57.1% |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 8 | 6 | 14 | 57.1% |
| Outright match result | 23 | 33 | 56 | 41.1% |
League view
Matchday results by competition
A league can have a strong day without proving a lasting trend. Sample sizes remain visible.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esiliiga A | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Liga II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Liga MX | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| Primera A | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| League | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Liga 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Premier League | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Primera Division | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
Every reviewed match
Match-by-match postmortems
Primera ANo selection / abstained
Llaneros
0–3Full time
Deportivo Cali
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Deportivo Cali won 0-3. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 0-3 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Under 3.5 total goals81%LANDED
Deportivo Cali or draw69%LANDED
Deportivo Cali to score66%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals66%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals61%MISSED
Both teams to score — No54%LANDED
Deportivo Cali to win40%LANDED
Deportivo Cali to win40%LANDED
Llaneros to win31%MISSED
Match to end in a draw29%MISSED
Liga MXNo selection / abstained
Atlas
2–5Full time
Club America
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Club America won 2-5. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-5 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals79%LANDED
Club America to score78%LANDED
Club America or draw72%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals67%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes59%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals56%LANDED
Club America to win47%LANDED
Club America to win47%LANDED
Atlas to win28%MISSED
Match to end in a draw25%MISSED
Liga MXNo selection / abstained
Puebla
1–4Full time
Monterrey
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Monterrey won 1-4. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 1-4 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Monterrey or draw77%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals75%LANDED
Monterrey to score73%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals71%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes55%LANDED
Monterrey to win52%LANDED
Monterrey to win52%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals51%LANDED
Match to end in a draw25%MISSED
Puebla to win23%MISSED
Liga MXShortlist landed
Toluca
2–2Full time
Club Tijuana
Shortlisted selection
Toluca to score81%
Reliability score · raw probability 81%
The match finished level 2-2. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; the 2-2 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Toluca or draw91%LANDED
Toluca to score81%LANDED
Toluca to win76%MISSED
Toluca to win76%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals75%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals72%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes52%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals50%LANDED
Match to end in a draw14%LANDED
Club Tijuana to win9%MISSED
Primera AShortlist landed
Santa Fe
2–1Full time
Jaguares
Shortlisted selection
Santa Fe or draw93%
Reliability score · raw probability 93%
Santa Fe won 2-1. The shortlisted double_chance · 1X selection landed; the 2-1 result diverged from the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Santa Fe or draw93%LANDED
Santa Fe to score84%LANDED
Santa Fe to win79%LANDED
Santa Fe to win79%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals69%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals54%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw13%MISSED
Jaguares to win7%MISSED
Primera DivisionNo selection / abstained
FAS
0–0Full time
Isidro Metapán
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 0-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
FAS to score80%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals74%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals72%MISSED
FAS or draw72%LANDED
Under 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Both teams to score — No51%LANDED
FAS to win43%MISSED
FAS to win43%MISSED
Match to end in a draw29%LANDED
Isidro Metapán to win28%MISSED
Liga MXNot analyzed
CF Pachuca
1–2Full time
Cruz Azul
Coverage gap
No public prediction postmortem exists for this fixture.
No public prediction postmortem was produced for this completed fixture.
All modelled angles (0)
Review unavailable
Liga MXNo selection / abstained
Santos Laguna
2–0Full time
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Santos Laguna won 2-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; the 2-0 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Santos Laguna to score75%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals70%LANDED
Santos Laguna or draw69%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes56%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals53%MISSED
Santos Laguna to win43%LANDED
Santos Laguna to win43%LANDED
U.N.A.M. - Pumas to win31%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
Liga 1No selection / abstained
Persik Kediri
2–1Full time
PSS Sleman
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Persik Kediri won 2-1. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Persik Kediri or draw78%LANDED
Persik Kediri to score77%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals77%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals69%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes57%LANDED
Persik Kediri to win54%LANDED
Persik Kediri to win54%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals53%LANDED
Match to end in a draw25%MISSED
PSS Sleman to win22%MISSED
Liga 1No selection / abstained
PSM Makassar
1–0Full time
Persebaya Surabaya
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
PSM Makassar won 1-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Persebaya Surabaya to score79%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals78%MISSED
Persebaya Surabaya or draw74%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals67%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes58%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals55%MISSED
Persebaya Surabaya to win47%MISSED
Persebaya Surabaya to win47%MISSED
Match to end in a draw27%MISSED
PSM Makassar to win26%LANDED
Liga 1No selection / abstained
Persepam Madura Utd
1–0Full time
Persib Bandung
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Persepam Madura Utd won 1-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Persib Bandung or draw81%MISSED
Over 1.5 total goals76%MISSED
Persib Bandung to score74%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals70%LANDED
Persib Bandung to win56%MISSED
Persib Bandung to win56%MISSED
Both teams to score — Yes56%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals52%MISSED
Match to end in a draw24%MISSED
Persepam Madura Utd to win19%LANDED
Liga IIShortlist landed
Bihor Oradea
2–0Full time
CSM Reşiţa
Shortlisted selection
Bihor Oradea to score82%
Reliability score · raw probability 82%
Bihor Oradea won 2-0. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Bihor Oradea to score82%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals79%LANDED
Bihor Oradea or draw71%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals66%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes58%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals56%MISSED
Bihor Oradea to win45%LANDED
Bihor Oradea to win45%LANDED
CSM Reşiţa to win29%MISSED
Match to end in a draw26%MISSED
LeagueNo selection / abstained
Al Hussein
1–0Full time
Doqarah
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
Al Hussein won 1-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Al Hussein or draw93%LANDED
Al Hussein to win79%LANDED
Al Hussein to win79%LANDED
Al Hussein to score78%LANDED
Over 1.5 total goals74%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals73%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes53%MISSED
Under 2.5 total goals51%LANDED
Match to end in a draw14%MISSED
Doqarah to win7%MISSED
Premier LeagueNo selection / abstained
Sardarapat
0–0Full time
FC Urartu
Apex decision
No market cleared the gate.
The match finished level 0-0. ApexPredict made no formal bet recommendation; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals79%MISSED
FC Urartu or draw76%LANDED
FC Urartu to score74%MISSED
Under 3.5 total goals67%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes59%MISSED
Over 2.5 total goals56%MISSED
FC Urartu to win51%MISSED
FC Urartu to win51%MISSED
Match to end in a draw24%LANDED
Sardarapat to win24%MISSED
Esiliiga AShortlist landed
Flora II
3–2Full time
Nõmme United II
Shortlisted selection
Flora II to score89%
Reliability score · raw probability 89%
Flora II won 3-2. The shortlisted team_to_score · HOME selection landed; full underlying statistics were unavailable.
All modelled angles (10)
Over 1.5 total goals89%LANDED
Flora II to score89%LANDED
Over 2.5 total goals73%LANDED
Both teams to score — Yes70%LANDED
Flora II or draw66%LANDED
Under 3.5 total goals48%MISSED
Flora II to win45%LANDED
Flora II to win45%LANDED
Nõmme United II to win34%MISSED
Match to end in a draw21%MISSED
Long-term 1X2 ledger
Original match-result model performance
This section remains separate from the reliability shortlist. It evaluates the original EPL 1X2 probability distribution, scoring quality, and publication-time odds.
Published
19
Pending
1
Settled
18
Wins / losses
12 / 6
Accuracy
66.67%
Average Brier
0.247
Average log loss
0.853
Average odds
—
Calibration gap
0.68 pts
Maximum losing streak
3
Voided
0
Unit P/L
Unavailable
ROI
Unavailable
Method and eligibility
Accuracy is wins divided by settled wins plus losses. Pending and void results are excluded. Brier score and log loss evaluate the original probability distribution; lower is better. The calibration gap compares average recorded confidence with observed accuracy. ROI and unit profit/loss are calculated only when every eligible settled record has immutable publication-time decimal odds; later prices are never substituted.
Immutable public ledger
Latest post-kickoff records
Premier League · superseded
Tottenham 3–1 Coventry
- Original call
- Tottenham win · 69%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.092 / 0.428
- Publication odds
- 1xBet: away 6.47 · 1xBet: draw 4.72 · 1xBet: home 1.54 · Bet365: away 6.50 · Bet365: draw 4.50 · Bet365: home 1.48 · BetVictor: away 6.00 · BetVictor: draw 4.50 · BetVictor: home 1.45 · Betano: away 6.00 · Betano: draw 4.55 · Betano: home 1.50 · Betfair: away 6.00 · Betfair: draw 4.50 · Betfair: home 1.44 · Dafabet: away 6.00 · Dafabet: draw 4.80 · Dafabet: home 1.50 · Marathonbet: away 6.30 · Marathonbet: draw 4.60 · Marathonbet: home 1.50 · Pinnacle: away 6.43 · Pinnacle: draw 4.76 · Pinnacle: home 1.49 · SBO: away 5.42 · SBO: draw 4.12 · SBO: home 1.43 · William Hill: away 5.80 · William Hill: draw 4.20 · William Hill: home 1.50
Changed: system reforecast — Superseded before kickoff by a materially changed model output. ·
Premier League · superseded
Tottenham 3–1 Coventry
- Original call
- Tottenham win · 69%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.091 / 0.426
- Publication odds
Goal markets, scored on their own
Over/Under 2.5 and both teams to score
Settled goal picks only, every league combined, each market with its own hit rate and sample. A two-way goal market is easier to hit than a three-way match result, so these figures are never added to the 1X2 record above. Every settled pick counts, losses included; voids and no-pick matches are excluded.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Hit rate
- 62%
- Settled picks
- 368
- Landed / missed
- 229 / 139
Stated probability against what happened, over the latest 22 settled picks:
Stated probability64%
Realised hit rate0%
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Al Hussein 1–0 DoqarahLeague: Over 2.5 at 64%MISSED
Both teams to score
- Hit rate
- 74%
- Settled picks
- 39
- Landed / missed
- 29 / 10
Stated probability against what happened, over all 39 settled picks:
Stated probability65%
Realised hit rate74%