Matches in scope
1
Completed or cancelled fixtures covered by this report.
Transparent performance
ApexPredict public track record
Every settled matchday is disclosed after the evaluation worker finishes: shortlist wins, misses, abstentions, league splits, and every modelled market. No outcome is hidden by a subscription.
Matchday report
What landed, what missed, and what Apex left alone
This report is rebuilt from the evaluation worker's settled postmortems. It measures the exact market shortlisted for each match and separately audits every other modelled angle.
Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Lagos time (WAT)
1 match was in scope. No match cleared the shortlist gate. 0 matches were abstained from, and 1 had no public postmortem.
Shortlist picks
0
Matches where one market cleared every gate.
Landed
0
The shortlisted condition occurred.
Missed
0
The shortlisted condition did not occur.
Abstained
0
No market was strong enough to shortlist.
Not analyzed
1
Completed fixtures missing a public prediction postmortem.
Shortlist hit rate
—
Landed ÷ landed plus missed; abstentions and voids excluded.
Selected performance
Shortlisted markets
Only the one market Apex actually selected for each match.
No market cleared the gate.
All-option audit
Every modelled market
This recreates reports such as “team to score landed 30 of 37.” These were evaluated options, not necessarily customer shortlist picks.
| Market | Landed | Missed | Sample | Hit rate |
|---|
League view
Matchday results by competition
A league can have a strong day without proving a lasting trend. Sample sizes remain visible.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esiliiga A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
Every reviewed match
Match-by-match postmortems
Esiliiga ANot analyzed
Nõmme United II
—–—Full time
Maardu
Coverage gap
No public prediction postmortem exists for this fixture.
No public prediction postmortem was produced for this completed fixture.
All modelled angles (0)
Review unavailable
Long-term 1X2 ledger
Original match-result model performance
This section remains separate from the reliability shortlist. It evaluates the original EPL 1X2 probability distribution, scoring quality, and publication-time odds.
Published
19
Pending
1
Settled
18
Wins / losses
12 / 6
Accuracy
66.67%
Average Brier
0.247
Average log loss
0.853
Average odds
—
Calibration gap
0.68 pts
Maximum losing streak
3
Voided
0
Unit P/L
Unavailable
ROI
Unavailable
Method and eligibility
Accuracy is wins divided by settled wins plus losses. Pending and void results are excluded. Brier score and log loss evaluate the original probability distribution; lower is better. The calibration gap compares average recorded confidence with observed accuracy. ROI and unit profit/loss are calculated only when every eligible settled record has immutable publication-time decimal odds; later prices are never substituted.
Immutable public ledger
Latest post-kickoff records
Premier League · superseded
Tottenham 3–1 Coventry
- Original call
- Tottenham win · 69%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.092 / 0.428
- Publication odds
- 1xBet: away 6.47 · 1xBet: draw 4.72 · 1xBet: home 1.54 · Bet365: away 6.50 · Bet365: draw 4.50 · Bet365: home 1.48 · BetVictor: away 6.00 · BetVictor: draw 4.50 · BetVictor: home 1.45 · Betano: away 6.00 · Betano: draw 4.55 · Betano: home 1.50 · Betfair: away 6.00 · Betfair: draw 4.50 · Betfair: home 1.44 · Dafabet: away 6.00 · Dafabet: draw 4.80 · Dafabet: home 1.50 · Marathonbet: away 6.30 · Marathonbet: draw 4.60 · Marathonbet: home 1.50 · Pinnacle: away 6.43 · Pinnacle: draw 4.76 · Pinnacle: home 1.49 · SBO: away 5.42 · SBO: draw 4.12 · SBO: home 1.43 · William Hill: away 5.80 · William Hill: draw 4.20 · William Hill: home 1.50
Changed: system reforecast — Superseded before kickoff by a materially changed model output. ·
Premier League · superseded
Tottenham 3–1 Coventry
- Original call
- Tottenham win · 69%
- Published
- Settled
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.091 / 0.426
- Publication odds
Goal markets, scored on their own
Over/Under 2.5 and both teams to score
Settled goal picks only, every league combined, each market with its own hit rate and sample. A two-way goal market is easier to hit than a three-way match result, so these figures are never added to the 1X2 record above. Every settled pick counts, losses included; voids and no-pick matches are excluded.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Hit rate
- 62%
- Settled picks
- 368
- Landed / missed
- 229 / 139
Stated probability against what happened, over the latest 22 settled picks:
Stated probability64%
Realised hit rate0%
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Atlas W 1–1 León WLiga MX Femenil: Over 2.5 at 63%MISSED
- Al Hussein 1–0 DoqarahLeague: Over 2.5 at 64%MISSED
Both teams to score
- Hit rate
- 74%
- Settled picks
- 39
- Landed / missed
- 29 / 10
Stated probability against what happened, over all 39 settled picks:
Stated probability65%
Realised hit rate74%